![]() That said, throughout July Boone has largely used Holmes for the ninth inning. Holmes leads the Yankees in saves but isn’t necessarily always the traditional “closer.” Manager Aaron Boone is not afraid to bring Holmes out in the eighth or even the seventh. All four should be available and ready if New York has a lead or a narrow deficit. If the game is close, the Yankees preferred high-leverage options are Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta, Ron Marinaccio, and Michael King. Among playoff contenders in the AL, the Yankees have the third-most bullpen innings in 2023. This is, perhaps, a result of New York’s heavy reliance on their bullpen to cover innings. In the month of July the Yankee bullpen ERA has swollen to 4.48. They’re also limiting hard contact in general, as the Yankee bullpen has the second lowest hard hit percentage in the American League.īut, there may be cracks in the foundation. No doubt this is a result of limiting late-innings home runs, as the Yankee bullpen has the second-best HR/9 in MLB. The Yankees bullpen ERA sits at 3.18 on the season and that is still the best in MLB. There is some hope though as his last two starts have shown improvement, albeit against lesser competition in the Angels and Royals. Moreover, chase rate on the Slider is down but even when opponents chase they’re still making contact and doing so at a significantly higher rate than last year. After producing whiffs 41.7% of the time last year, Severino is only generating swing and misses 24.7% of the time in 2023. In 2023, Severino can no longer rely on the Slider for swing-and-miss. This year, that numbers plummeted to 13.6%. When Severino went to the Slider with two strikes last year, it produced a strikeout nearly 30% of the time. In 2022, the Slider was his most reliable put away pitch. The Slider used to be Sevy’s best out-pitch. Of all of his pitches, Severino’s Slider seems to be the best illustration of his increased contract trend and, therefore, his struggles. In terms of pitch selection, Severino throws a 4-Seam Fastball (52.5%), Changeup (20.2%), Slider (17%), and Cutter (10.2%). In Severino’s case, it’s more line drives, which don’t produce nearly as many outs as ground balls do. Hard hit balls at a higher launch angle usually mean fewer ground balls and more fly balls or line drives. Severino is in the 9 th percentile for hard hit percentage and his average launch angle increased 5.3 degrees this year over last. Not only is Severino getting hit more often, he’s also getting hit harder and at a higher launch angle. ![]() Unsurprisingly, Severino’s K/9 rests at a career low 7.5. Severino used to have double-digit strikeouts per-nine-innings, but it’s pretty hard to do that when you’re allowing that much contact inside or outside of the zone. When Severino gets batters to expand and chase, they’re still making contact 69.6% of the time. Even outside the zone, he’s not missing bats on the rare occasion he can generate a chase. ![]() Severino is generating more batter swings than ever in 2023 but, as indicated above, fewer whiffs than ever. Overall, batters seem keyed on Severino’s presence in the zone and he’s having a hard time fooling them even when he expands the zone. That figure is (i) the second highest contact percentage in Severino’s career, (ii) higher than his career average, and (iii) above league average. When opposing hitters swing at pitches in the zone from Severino, they make contact 83.1% of the time. Opponents seem to recognize that he’s increased his presence in the zone and they’re swinging in the zone 72.5% of the time-more than ever before against Severino and well above league average (66.9%). The culprit largely seems to be that Severino is not missing bats like he used to as he’s in the 11 th percentile for whiff percentage in the MLB. He’s getting ahead in counts and commanding the zone better than he did in 2022 when he was a 1.6 WAR starting pitcher, so what gives? Severino also increased his first pitch strike percentage to a three year high at 65.2% which is also in line with his career average. In 2023, Severino is filling up the strike zone as his pitches are in the zone 53% of the time-a career high percentage. Unfortunately, Severino’s struggles are a little confounding to traditional wisdom on pitching. In other words, Severino is basically turning opposing batters into a hybrid of Mookie Betts (.942 OPS 5.9% HR%) and Ronald Acuna Jr. There’s no easy, interesting, or captivating way to say it-Luis Severino is having an awful 2023 season. ![]()
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